By Leah McGrath Goodman
On the first day of April, as crude futures soared past $85 a barrel—marking an 18-month high—the words finally escaped someone's mouth: "Anyone talking $150?"
Uttered by one very wary New York hedge fund manager, it was a question not far from the lips of many an oil trader. It also spoke reams about the mind-set of the speculators behind an increasingly popular trade right now: betting on the rising price of oil futures—although just when is the tricky part. So tricky that some hedge fund managers think any price pop will be temporary and are lining up short bets for 2011 as a cautionary backstop.
Although oil prices have been in the doldrums for more than a year, there are signs that they could get comfortable in a higher range. The United States is facing the summer driving season, along with expectations...